Did Apple sell enough Watches last quarter?

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A lot fewer than everybody expected. Except maybe Apple.

Tim Cook won’t say how many Watches Apple sold last quarter. But he did the next best thing. He dropped enough hints in the conference call Tuesday for analysts to make some educated guesses. A few even showed their math (see below).

Watch sales may have exceeded Apple’s internal expectations, as both Cook and CFO Luka Maestri insist, but they did not exceed Wall Street’s. The last time we checked, the average estimate was about 4 million. We gathered a dozen revised estimates this morning and got a new average: 2.53 million.

“It’s hard to spin an estimated 2.2M Watch shipments in the June quarter positively,” writes Katy Huberty, using her own set of numbers, “given it missed our 3M estimate.”

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